Over the past ten months of Israel's war on the Gaza Strip, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not presented any clear vision for the future of this war or the fate of the "day after" in Gaza. Instead, he has repeatedly emphasized that the end of the war is contingent on the elimination of Hamas, followed by the establishment of a local government in Gaza that is not hostile to Israel, with Israel retaining security control over the Strip for some time. According to Netanyahu, the Palestinian Authority will not play any role in Gaza's future.
Netanyahu's speech before the US Congress on July 24, 2024, confirmed this conclusion. American circles had expected Netanyahu to outline his plan to end the war and address the future "day after" in Gaza, but the speech was disappointing to them. It became clear that Netanyahu does not have a specific vision for these pressing issues other than continuing the war due to the current circumstances that have made his political future dependent on the continuation of the state of war in Israel.
Consequently, some Western think tanks have concluded that discussing a "day after" plan is no longer a priority that comes before the importance of discussing arrangements for the day before the "day after," or "the day in between," often referred to as "the golden hour," by the American RAND Corporation. This golden hour is expected to begin with a decrease in the intensity of Israeli military operations in Gaza, referred to by the Israeli army as the "third phase" of the war. This golden hour could either lead to a scenario of chaos or pave the way for the day after.
What is the Golden Hour?
RAND's Army Research Division of the RAND Corporation introduced the concept of the golden hour in a report published in February 2020 under the title "Seizing the Golden Hour: Tasks, Organization, and Capabilities Required for the Earliest Phase of Stability Operations." The golden hour refers to the early phase of a post-conflict stability operation—and the actions, organization, and capabilities necessary to seize it and set the conflict-affected country on a path to self-sustaining peace.
The term was first used by James Stephenson, former director of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) mission in Iraq, shortly after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. He borrowed this term from the medical field, where it describes the minutes following a traumatic injury, during which appropriate medical care can mean the difference between life and death. He used it to emphasize the need to seize the moment to put Iraq on the path to sustainable peace.
This "golden hour" has no specific timeframe," but the first weeks and months are the most critical. Accordingly, the golden hour becomes less "golden" in later stages as the conflict-affected country either stabilizes or descends into chaos.
Applying this concept to the current war in Gaza, the golden hour will represent the weeks and months immediately following the end of intensive Israeli military operations in the Strip and preceding the official declaration of the war's end and the beginning of the reconstruction phase. In practice, this period will fall within what the Israeli army has termed the third phase of the war, which it claims is imminent. This phase could potentially last a long time.
According to Israeli military reports, the third phase of the war may involve transferring military forces to the northern front with Lebanon, allowing reserve soldiers who have fought in Gaza for months to rest while maintaining a smaller number of ground troops. This will allow for precise and limited military operations based on intelligence as needed.
Although the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation previously reported that the political echelon had agreed to the military's recommendations to transition to the third phase by July 2024, Netanyahu does not currently seem ready to enter this phase, at least under the present circumstances. Moving to this phase might allow the Israeli opposition and the public to exert more pressure on his government, potentially leading to the formation of an inquiry committee on the events of October 7, 2023. Therefore, it is likely that Netanyahu will only proceed to this phase after achieving a new "military accomplishment" on the ground, such as assassinating more Hamas leaders or rescuing a significant number of hostages in a new military operation. In this scenario, public opinion in Israel could shift in his favor, bolstering his political strength. Netanyahu might also move to the third phase if he decides to initiate a broader war on the Lebanese front.
Managing Gaza
Given the current situation, the day after in Gaza seems distant. The day after is expected to come after the war is stopped, something Netanyahu has linked to a decisive Israeli victory that ends Hamas's presence and disarms it in Gaza—a goal many Israeli observers deem unrealistic.
As a result, Western analysts have started discussing the golden hour in Gaza or the plan for the day before the day after. Among them is Dana Stroul, Director of Research at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for the Middle East, who noted in an article in the Foreign Affairs magazine published on May 20, 2024, that the paucity of realistic solutions for "the day after" in Gaza reflects a more troubling absence of planning. She emphasized that the most important focus should be "the day in between." This was also implicitly mentioned by Daniel Byman, a professor in the Security Studies Program and the Department of Government at Georgetown University, in his recent article in Foreign Affairs on July 30, titled "Can Anyone Govern Gaza? The Perilous Path to the Day After."
During this phase, even as low-intensity Israeli military operations continue, the Gaza Strip will need local governance to manage daily life, administer food aid, and provide essential infrastructure and vital goods, including clean water, electricity, education, transportation, and healthcare systems. This raises the question: What authority will organize basic services and respond to the needs of Gaza's residents as they seek to rebuild their lives?
Current circumstances suggest that this burden may fall on Israel, as it has not presented an alternative. However, there is a broad consensus that Israel is not equipped to handle this task, which could plunge Gaza into a scenario of "chaos." Dana Stroul warns that "Israel is already risking not planning for the golden hour.
The Future of Gaza
The future of the day after in Gaza is fundamentally linked to how Israel handles the upcoming "Golden Hour" in the Strip. Several options could shape the future day after, including incorporating Gaza into the Palestinian Authority's rule after it is reconstituted, establishing a local governing authority within Gaza with regional and international support, Israel's military reoccupation of Gaza, Hamas's return to power in Gaza, or the region descending into chaos.
Determining Gaza's future according to one of the following five options will result from one of two scenarios regarding Israel's handling of the golden hour in Gaza:
1. Continuation of current Israeli policy:
This is the most likely scenario, meaning that the golden hour in Gaza will begin without Israel having developed clear plans for the Strip's future or engaged in regional or international consultations on this issue. Under this scenario, Gaza will either descend into total chaos or be completely reoccupied by Israel, a possibility supported by current conditions. According to UNRWA estimates from last July, 1.9 million people, or about 80% of Gaza's population, have been displaced. The World Health Organization reported in February that approximately 80% of Gaza's civilian infrastructure has been destroyed or damaged, leaving the Strip with virtually no economy and heavily dependent on foreign aid.
2. Negotiating the redesign of Gaza's governance structure:
Achieving either the option of reinstating the Palestinian Authority's control over Gaza or establishing a new local government means that Israel will use the golden hour to propose new frameworks for local governance in the Strip, according to its vision. This could involve negotiations with local elements or re-establishing contact with the Palestinian Authority. In either case, this phase may witness serious negotiations between Israel on one side and concerned regional and international parties on the other. However, if Netanyahu remains in power, it is unlikely that he will pursue these negotiations.
In summary, despite the uncertainty surrounding Gaza's future, Israel's actions during what it has termed the third phase of the war (the golden hour in Gaza) will likely determine the Strip's future on the day after—a future that, unfortunately, appears to be dominated by chaos if current conditions persist and Netanyahu sticks to his current view.
